Thursday, November 28, 2019

A Profile of the Karabiner 98k

A Profile of the Karabiner 98k The Karabiner 98k was the last in a long line of rifles designed for the German military by Mauser. Tracing its roots to the Lebel Model 1886, the Karabiner 98k was most directly descended from the Gewehr 98 (Model 1898) which first introduced an internal, metallic five-cartridge magazine. In 1923, the Karabiner 98b was introduced as the primary rifle for the post-World War I German military. As the Treaty of Versailles prohibited the Germans from producing rifles, the Karabiner 98b was labeled a carbine despite the fact that it was essentially an improved Gewehr 98. In 1935, Mauser moved to upgrade the Karabiner 98b by altering several of its components and shortening its overall length. The result was the Karabiner 98 Kurz (Short Carbine Model 1898), better known as the Karabiner 98k (Kar98k). Like its predecessors, the Kar98k was a bolt-action rifle, which limited its rate of fire, and was relatively unwieldy. One change was the shift to using laminated stocks rather than single pieces of wood, as testing had shown that plywood laminates were better at resisting warping. Entering service in 1935, over 14 million Kar98ks were produced by the end of World War II. Specifications Cartridge: 7.92 x 57 mm (8 mm Mauser)Capacity: 5-round stripper clip inserted into an internal magazineMuzzle Velocity: 760 m/secEffective Range: 547 yards, 875 yards with opticsWeight: 8-9 lbs.Length: 43.7 in.Barrel Length: 23.6 in.Attachments: Knife Bayonet S84/98, rifle grenades German and World War II Usage The Karabiner 98k saw service in all theaters of World War II that involved the German military, such as Europe, Africa, and Scandinavia. Though the Allies moved towards using semi-automatic rifles, such as the M1 Garand, the Wehrmacht retained the bolt-action Kar98k with its small five-round magazine. This was largely due to their tactical doctrine which emphasized the light machine gun as the basis of a squads firepower. In addition, the Germans frequently preferred to use submachine guns, like the MP40, in close combat or urban warfare. In the final year and a half of the war, the Wehrmacht began phasing out the Kar98k in favor of the new Sturmgewehr 44 (StG44) assault rifle. While the new weapon was effective, it was never produced in sufficient numbers and the Kar98k remained the primary German infantry rifle until the end of hostilities. In addition, the design also saw service with the Red Army which purchased licenses to manufacture them prior to the war. While few were produced in the Soviet Union, captured Kar98ks were used widely by the Red Army during its early war arms shortage. Postwar Use Following World War II, millions of Kar98ks were captured by the Allies. In the West, many were given to rebuilding nations to rearm their militaries. France and Norway adopted the weapon and factories in Belgium, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia began producing their own versions of the rifle. Those German weapons taken by the Soviet Union were kept in case of a future war with NATO. Over time, many of these were given to nascent communist movements around the world. Many of these ended up in Vietnam and were used by the North Vietnamese against the United States during the Vietnam War. Elsewhere, the Kar98k ironically served with the Jewish Haganah and later, the Israeli Defense Forces in the late 1940s and 1950s. Those weapons that were obtained from captured German stockpiles had all Nazi iconography removed and replaced with IDF and Hebrew markings. The IDF also purchased large stocks of Czech and Belgian-produced versions of the rifle. In the 1990s, the weapons were again deployed during the conflicts in former Yugoslavia. While no longer used by militaries today, the Kar98k is popular with shooters and collectors.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

How to Cheat on the SAT

How to Cheat on the SAT SAT / ACT Prep Online Guides and Tips Disclaimer: we're not going to tell you how to cheat on the SAT. We do not advocate cheating by any means! What we willtell you about, however, are some high-profile cheating scandals that have occurred in the recent past.While these scandals involved flagrant violations of ETS rules and regulations, we'll also reveal some little-known actions that can raise some red flags around your scores and jeopardize your chances of college admission. But first, let's take a look at the scandals. China: New SAT Material Already Leaked Right around the time the SAT was redesigned in 2016, new SAT material was apparently leaked in China bytest-prep centers competing for clients and profits. Through a combination of student interviews, online discussion forums, and leaks of entire chunks of the test, managers and teachers at cram schools obtained real test material from the new SAT. Before getting into how people got these materials, let’s discuss why it’s a problem. The SAT, after all, had already been administered, so why should it matter if they obtain real test questions now? Well, at the time, the new SAT had only been administeredin the US. ETS tends to reuse SATs that were already given to US students when administering the test internationally. They don’t have an unlimited number of new test questions, so they recycle tests from the US to be used abroad at a later date. This practice might be superior to giving the same test on the same test dates since students could take advantage of time zones to discusstest material. However, it opens up a whole host of issues, namely the chance for students to see real test questions before they actually take the SAT. As anyone who’s taken the SAT knows, you’re not supposed to share this confidential material with anyone. Students who went to these test-prep centers in China got a huge leg up from premature knowledge of the test. So how did these competitive prep companies already get their hands on new SAT sections? They accomplished this in a few ways. First, some companies flew teachers over to the US to learn more about the SAT. These teachers waited outside test centers and asked students directly to describe the test they just took. According to Reuters, one prep company called Sanli sent teachers to interview Sanli students studying in the US as they came out of the SAT! A second way people in the prep industry learned about the SAT was in online discussion forums, such asCollege Confidential. Students- and perhaps non-student test takers- shared detailed information about their tests online. Savvy test-prep tutors took this insight and reconstructed test material that, in the end, looked extremely similar to the real SAT. Finally- and the details of this are a little sketchy- SAT tutors appeared to have obtained leaked sections of the SAT. As reported by Reuters, there were documents circulating that contained entire sections of March 2016’s SAT. Soon after the SAT was administered, test-prep companies in China advertised test booklets that contained questions very similar to, if not the same as, those on the real SAT. It’s unclear whether these students' scores were withheld or canceled, as they have been in past years. It'd be a shame for students to suffer the consequences of unethical practices of test-prep companies. For now, unfortunately, it seems that competition in the industry means that this kind of cheating will only continue. As you’ll read below, China, as well as South Korea, has been under scrutiny for this same practice in past years. Students in both countrieswho studied at certain test prep centers saw some of the SAT questions before they took the test. This shadowy figure is clearly on his way to a predetermined meeting spot with a backpack full of top-secret SAT material. China and South Korea:Students Given Answers to Repeat Tests Security is extremely high around the SAT, so when foul play occurs, such as in January 2015’s test administration in China and May 2013’s test administration in South Korea, it becomes pretty big news. Scores from the test were withheld not just for all students who tested in China but also for all Chinese students (with a home address in China) who tested outside the country. And for students in South Korea? All their scores were canceled. Here's what happened in our understanding: the College Board administers new tests only within the United States. Internationally, it used a random previously administered test (for example, any of the 60 tests given in the last 10 years). At various points, most notably May 2013, October 2014, and January 2015,ETS suspected that testing organizations illegally purchased SAT tests and questions that had already been given in the US and distributed them to students. Many students recognized questions on their SAT as ones they’d already seen and answered before. Some even went so far as to obtain an entire answer set via text. When they got to the testing center, they texted their tutors a question on the test. The tutor then quickly texted them back a complete set of answers! As I briefly mentioned above, I suspect the College Board recycles previously used SATs to avoid another method of cheating- if everyone around the world took the exact same SAT test, then the time zones would create another vulnerability. Someone in the US could give someone else in Australia the test questions and answers (or vice versa). As a result, the College Board concentrates the best tests in the US (where most test takers are) and gives international students less reliable tests from the past. Unfortunately, this practice means that some students gain knowledge of their test before they even take it, whereas others get their scores canceled despite approaching the test with honesty. While the two cases mentioned above were the most widespread, there have been several others over the years in East Asia that have led to investigations, score cancellations, and even legal indictments of test-prep company managers and teachers! New York: Students Hired Others to Take Test for Them Perhaps the biggest SAT cheating scandal to hit the UScame out of Long Island, New York, in 20. High school students hired others (mostly college students) to take the SAT for them with fake IDs.They paid students up to $3,600 to take the test in their stead. This is understandably tempting- what if you could get a perfect scorer to take your SAT for you? How much would you pay for that? When the cheating was discovered, these students faced charges of scheming to defraud, criminal impersonation, and falsifying business records. While none ultimately faced jail time, their names are public, so they will be forever linked to this highly conspicuous incident of cheating on the SAT. South Korea: Test Centers Obtained and Distributed Advanced Copy While you read above that ETS canceled SAT scores in South Korea for the May 2013 test, you might also be interested to learn that this wasn't the first time!In 2007, ETS canceled allscores for students who took the SAT in South Korea. All 68 tutoring centers in Seoul were investigated, and 10 educators were even barred from leaving the country until the investigation concluded. ETS suspected that tutoring centers illegally obtained a copy of the SAT and distributed it to students in advance of test day. SAT cheating cases are actually relatively rare- only about 2,000 tests are investigated out of the 3 million administered each year. Most of these investigations are concerned with individual cases of suspected test day cheating,such as a student copying from another's exam. Let's take a look at what else could prompt an investigation or cancellation of your test scores by ETS. New Ways the College Board Is Cracking Down on Cheating In February 2017, the College Board announced that they will begin takingnew measures to help combat cheating both in the US and abroad. Some of the new measures announced include the following: Giving the names of people and test-prep companies suspected of cheating to law enforcement and federal agencies in the US and abroad. Reducing the number of times the SAT is given overseas each year. (The SAT will now be offered four times a year overseas in October, December, March, and May.) Reducing the number of questions reused on different tests. Prohibiting people from taking the SAT, SAT Subject Tests, or AP Exams if the College Board has concluded they were guilty of prior cheating. Making it easier for proctors and test takers to anonymously report suspected cheating. These new actions likely won't eliminate cheating, but they should help make it even harder to cheat on the SAT and get away with it. In particular, reducing the number of SAT questions used on multiple exams should significantly reduce the number of test takers who go into the exam already knowing some of the questions and use that knowledge to inflate their scores. What Can Get Your SAT Scores Withheld or Canceled? Not all cheating on the SAT involves high tech, international, back-door deals- the traditional signs of cheating are more common and could result in cancellation of your scores. Looking at anyone else's paper, talking during the test, flipping ahead through the test booklet, or continuing to work or fill in ovals on the bubble sheet after time has been called is strictly prohibited. Test proctors are on the lookout for this type of behavior and could report it if they feel something is off. Make sure you're aware of all the rules of the SAT, especially if you have a hard time absorbing instructions on test day or if English isn't your first language. Familiarizing yourself with the instructions well in advance will allow you to focus all your energy on taking the test itself. Another thing that could prompt an investigation into your scores is huge fluctuations between test administrations.If you jump ahead a huge number of points, or score highly in one section and much lower in a similar section, it's possible that the College Board will withhold your scores. In this case, they'll give you a chance to defend your scores- perhaps you took an intensive SAT prep course after your first test and can provide a testimonial from your teacher- but this process could get long and frustrating and isn't guaranteed to have a happy ending. This situation is quite rare, but here's what you can do to prevent it: Make sure you understand the instructions before test day Try your best on every test administrationrather than treating one as a throwaway or practice run To reiterate, be careful not to do any of the following: Look at anyone else's test Talk to your neighbor once the test has started Flip ahead through your test booklet Keep working after time has been called If ETS suspects cheating on the SAT, what exactly happens next? Consequences of Cheating on the SAT While students in the Long Island scandal faced serious charges, the most common consequence of cheating on the SAT is having your scores canceled.If they've already been sent to colleges as part of your application, then the College Board will notify these schools that your SAT scores are no longer valid. Usually, the College Board won't specify the reason for the cancellation, although they do have the authority to tell third parties what happened. More often, their reason will be quite general. But since score cancellation is rare, this could raise a huge red flag to colleges.Although you'll be allowed to retake the SAT, you might not have time to retake it and get your scores sent in time for your college deadlines. The SAT is a rite of passage that many students, both American and international, share on their path to high school graduation and college. Approaching the SAT with honesty and integrity is the best memory you can have of this near-universal academic landmark. What to Learn From These SAT Cheating Scandals Don't cheat on the SAT- prep instead! Nothing will improve your SAT scores like practicing with high-quality materials and becoming comfortable with the content and format of the test. Check out our free eBook for five vital strategies you need to know that will get you at least a 240-point increase. Since the College Board and your test proctors take fairness and security extremely seriously, be sure you're following all instructions and regulations,including what to the bring to the SAT and what to leave at home. Finally, try to keep perspective throughout the test-prep and college application process, which can cause both a lot of excitement and a lot of stress. Ultimately, if you move through the process with awareness and integrity, you're likely to end up in the college that's the best possible fit for you. What's Next? Feeling stressed about the SAT? Here are what we believe to bethe three major sources of SAT anxiety, and what coping skills you can use in your daily life to manage them. Is test day almost upon you? Here's what you should do the night before to prepare to take the SAT. Are you a high performer who's gunning for a perfect score? Read our guide to learn how you, too, can score a 1600 on the SAT! Want to improve your SAT score by 160 points? Check out our best-in-class online SAT prep classes. We guarantee your money back if you don't improve your SAT score by 160 points or more. Our classes are entirely online, and they're taught by SAT experts. If you liked this article, you'll love our classes. Along with expert-led classes, you'll get personalized homework with thousands of practice problems organized by individual skills so you learn most effectively. We'll also give you a step-by-step, custom program to follow so you'll never be confused about what to study next. Try it risk-free today: Have friends who also need help with test prep? Share this article! Tweet Rebecca Safier About the Author Rebecca graduated with her Master's in Adolescent Counseling from the Harvard Graduate School of Education. She has years of teaching and college counseling experience and is passionate about helping students achieve their goals and improve their well-being. She graduated magna cum laude from Tufts University and scored in the 99th percentile on the SAT. Get Free Guides to Boost Your SAT/ACT Get FREE EXCLUSIVE insider tips on how to ACE THE SAT/ACT. 100% Privacy. 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Thursday, November 21, 2019

South Texas Behavioral Health Center Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

South Texas Behavioral Health Center - Assignment Example With this in mind, it is important to concentrate on one specific player in the industry such as South Texas Behavioral Health Center, in order to get a clear picture of some of the strategies employed to gain competitive advantage. This requires a critical analysis and evaluation of both the internal and external environment of the health center. Gaining competitive advantage in the healthcare industry requires the provision of effective health care services. In most parts of the world, provision of health care services is done on a face-to-face basis with increased interactions between health care providers and patients. This implies that for health care providers to gain competitive advantage, it is important to improve interaction quality. For example, South Texas Behavioral Health Center specializes in providing personalized health care services that are carried out by highly qualified professionals led by a team of experienced psychiatrists (South Texas Behavioral Health Center, 2015). As such the quality of service delivery is seemingly high hence giving significant satisfaction to patients. The greatest resource in the healthcare industry is arguably a skilled and experienced workforce to ensure competence and quality service delivery. Nevertheless, incorporation of qualified physicians is a provision of the industry a s an effort to ensure appropriate service delivery. This can be attributed to the fact that the health industry is highly sensitive since it deals with the preservation of human health and life. However, the decision to ensure that health care providers are experienced is an effort by the health center to improve service quality hence gaining a competitive advantage due to patient satisfaction. South Texas Behavioral Health Center offers quality health care service through its six acute care hospitals.Conclusively, the healthcare industry plays an important role in the society since it ensures the health of the people. However, health care providers have to employ effective management strategies to ensure they gain competitive advantage. Health centers mainly focus on improving service delivery quality by ensuring they have a competent workforce. However, policies surrounding the healthcare industry provide for quality service delivery by ensuring employment of only qualified worker s. Additionally, the success of a health care center is heavily dependent on the external factors such as its positioning the level of competition it faces from other health centers. Therefore, it is important for health care centers to ensure they employ effective management strategies.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

The Greek Dark Ages Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The Greek Dark Ages - Essay Example Society included groups of small settlements who survived on farming, which was seen as a vital economic resource. This essay will discuss the works of three writers who analyze the culture and societies of the Greek Dark Ages. Hooper said that the invaders that came into Greece entered the state in phenomenal numbers. These people had some sort of Greek descent because they could speak similar dialects. However, these invaders were far less superior to their Greek counterparts. Also, these invaders used iron weapons instead of the bronze ones used by the Greek settlers: only because iron was more plentiful in their regions (Desborough 1972). The Greek areas which had the most development began to show a change in the quality of their work. Archeologists discovering pottery and other items from this age find a huge decline in the production of these goods. Earlier society seemed to be forced to move backwards as any progress made in those eras was removed. This was replaced by an uneducated and disorganized group of people whose qualities would continue to exist for centuries. This continued to get worse as society was no longer divided into specific groups. It became a great mess of distorted groups. Greeks before the Dark Ages were divided into specific classes: the rich lived in the palaces leading comfortable lives, they could go to war and would return back to their luxurious lives and the poor would make goods and crafts that would serve and assist in the lives of the extravagant few. The palaces, jewelry, pottery and tombs were all removed and most were no longer created. All forms of art and pottery were broken down and their creation became non-existent in this New Greek era. When the invasions began, every member of Greek society suffered. Writing had disappeared during the Greek Dark Ages (Andrews 1967). Archeologists feel that the best proof of this broken society was the lack of any kind of writing during this period. It was only after the society moved to the ninth century that some sort of alphabet began to appear. This too had very limited use. However, the new material that was now used in preserving the forms of writings could store entire stories and histories. The flaw in this though was that no one was writing anything that would change the lives of the ordinary citizen. There was a lack of work done about everyday lives. Very few people spoke of the manipulative powers of the rich and their attempts to ruin the lives of the poor Greek citizen. Hesoid, a farmer was amongst one of the very few who chose to speak against the cruel regime. He is known to be one of the best witnesses to describe the lifestyles of the latter period of the Greek Dark Ages. The writing is of the ordinary mortal, not heroic warrior s. In his work, Hesoid also spoke of the superstition that had been an essential part of Greek life for centuries. Coins were a vital part of Greek life (Hooper 1978). Members of the community realized the great value of coins: as an easy exchange for goods. Literacy played no role in the use of these coins because it was a language that could be understood by anyone. This use of money was severely abused by landowners and the rich who would give it up as loans and

Monday, November 18, 2019

Product Portfolio Analysis of Heinz Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Product Portfolio Analysis of Heinz - Case Study Example The BCG growth-share matrix displays the positions of business units on graph of the market growth rate against their market share relative to competitors. Of all the products launched by Heinz between 2003 and 2006, sauces, dressings and condiments took the largest share, of 25.5%. However, ready meals also took a sizeable share of 20.9%. Other categories that been key to the company's new product developments include canned food (13.1%) and fruit and vegetable products (9.2%). Of all the products launched between 2003 and 2006, 1.5% products were classed as innovative. When looking at innovation within Heinz, the company is most innovative in meat, fish and poultry products with 6.1% of all meat products launched by the company, innovative (Datamonitor Inc., 2007). Additionally, from the information that is available about the business units of the company, it can be stated that the Tinned Pasta and Retail Brown sauce business units were the most profitable with a revenue generation of 78.2 and 74% respectively. From this information, according to the BCG Matrix, these two units can be termed as Stars. Secondly, the Retail Ketchup and Baked Beans divisions were other two divisions which generated considerable revenues. Baby food and drink products are another area in which Heinz is a leading innovator. 3.1% of all baby products launched were classed as innovative. One of the most impo... The company also increased its focus on the consumer with a strong spotlight on health and wellness. Apart from these, the company also increased investment in marketing for future growth, greater R & D and impressive productivity measures (Merrett, 2007). Heinz's international growth strategy of acquiring new companies in the Netherlands, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and Costa Rica also have been of great help to the company's growth and improved performance. The company also launched growth and reorganization plans to focus on Meal Enhancers and Meals & Snacks. The historic transaction with Del Monte Foods is designed to make Heinz a more focused company able to invest more effectively in its strongest brands (Heinz). Heinz intends to build growth and value over the long term through a strategy based on certain imperatives like expansion and improved consumer price-value, remove the clutter by reducing the complexity of Heinz's business processes and continuing to focus resources on those products and activities that maximize profitability; Task 1 - C Pricing Strategies & Porter's Five forces Pricing again also played its part in the company's overall performance as changes in pricing and improved volumes, through key brands like weight watchers and Heinz baked beans, were offset by difficulties in Russia for its non-Heinz products and unbranded frozen foods. By maintaining the key initiatives of the yearof pushing both innovation and the number of its brands globally, Heinz believes that it can continue the strong performance into the 2008 fiscal year. The company was also keen in squeezing out costs to deliver the margin improvements necessary to underwrite greater marketing investment. The effective formulation

Friday, November 15, 2019

Calculating Year-On-Year Growth of GDP

Calculating Year-On-Year Growth of GDP Introduction The model which is to be developed is real GDP in the UK. From such a series of real values, it is straightforward to calculate year-on-year growth of GDP. Selection of variables To model GDP, key factors identified by Easton (2004) include labour costs, savings ratio, taxation issues, inflation and terms of trade. However, many of these variables are not available for the required 40 year time span. The variables eventually chosen and the justification were as follows: GDP: the dependent variable, measured at 1950 prices. As GDP deflator figures were not available back to 1960, the eventual starting point of the analysis, the RPI inflation measure was used to convert the series into real prices. Exim: this variable is the sum of imports and exports, at constant 1950 prices. As a measure of trade volumes, EXIM would be expected to increase as GDP also increases. The RPI deflator was also used for this series. Total trade was plasced into one variable was to abide by the constraint of no more than four independent variables. Energy: energy consumption was calculated as production plus imports minus exports in tonnes of oil equivalent. As energy use increases, we would expect to see an increase in the proportion of GDP attributable to manufacturing.[1] Labour: this variable is the total number of days lost through disputes. We would expect this variable to have a negative coefficient, since an increase in the number of days lost will lead to a reduction of GDP. Scatter diagrammes showing the relationship between the dependent variable GDP and each of the independent variables is sown in Appendix 1. These diagrammes support each of the hypotheses outlined above. Main results The regression equation produced by EViews, once the energy variable is excluded, is as follows: GDP = -73223.22384 + 1.062678514*EXIM 0.1391051564*LABOUR + 1.565374397*POPN The adjusted R2 is equal to 0.978; or, 97.8% of the variation in GDP is accounted for by the variation in EXIM, LABOUR and POPN. Each of the coefficients of the three independent variables, EXIM, LABOUR and POPN, have t-statistics sufficiently high to reject the null hypothesis that any of the coefficients is equal to zero; in other words, each variable makes a significant contribution to the overall equation. To test the overall fit of the equation, the F value of 703 allows us similarly to reject the hypothesis that the coefficients are simultaneously all equal to zero. Dependent Variable: GDP Method: Least Squares Date: 04/15/08 Time: 09:10 Sample: 1960 2006 Included observations: 47 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -73223.22 23204.60 -3.155548 0.0029 EXIM 1.062679 0.117445 9.048297 0.0000 LABOUR -0.139105 0.036951 -3.764585 0.0005 POPN 1.565374 0.443541 3.529270 0.0010 R-squared 0.980046 Mean dependent var 32813.25 Adjusted R-squared 0.978654 S.D. dependent var 10905.60 S.E. of regression 1593.331 Akaike info criterion 17.66631 Sum squared resid 1.09E+08 Schwarz criterion 17.82377 Log likelihood -411.1582 F-statistic 703.9962 Durbin-Watson stat 0.746519 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 The Akaike and Schwartz criteria are used principally to compare two or more models (a model with a lower value of either of these statistics is preferred). As we are analysing only one model here, we will not discuss these two further. Using tables provided by Gujarati (2004), the upper and lower limits for the DW test are: DL = 1.383 DU = 1.666 The DW statistic calculated by EViews is 0.746, which is below DL. This results leads us to infer that there is no positive autocorrelation in the model. This is an unlikely result, given that we are dealing with increasing variables over time, but we shall examine the issue of autocorrelation in detail later on. Multicollinearity Ideally, there should be little or no significant correlation between the dependent variables; if two dependent variables are perfectly correlated, then one variable is redundant and the OLS equations could not be solved. The correlation of variables table below shows that EXIM and POPN have a particularly high level of correlation (the removal of the ENERGY variable early on solved two other cases of multicollinearity). It is important, however, to point out that multicollinearity does not violate any assumptions of the OLS process and Gujarati points out the multicollinearity is a consequence of the data being observed (indeed, section 10.4 of his book is entitled â€Å"Multicollinearity; much ado about nothing?†). Correlations of Variables GDP EXIM POPN ENERGY GDP 1.000000 EXIM 0.984644 POPN 0.960960 0.957558 ENERGY 0.835053 0.836279 0.914026 LABOUR -0.380830 -0.320518 -0.259193 -0.166407 Analysis of Residuals Overview The following graph shows the relationship between actual, fitted and residual values. At first glance, the residuals appear to be reasonably well behaved; the values are not increasing over time and there several points at which the residual switches from positive to negative. A more detailed tabular version of this graph may be found at Appendix 2. Heteroscedascicity To examine the issue of heteroscedascicity more closely, we will employ White’s test. As we are using a model with only three independent variables, we may use the version of the test which uses the cross-terms between the independent variables. White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 1.174056 Probability 0.339611 Obs*R-squared 10.44066 Probability 0.316002 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 04/16/08 Time: 08:24 Sample: 1960 2006 Included observations: 47 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -2.99E+09 4.06E+09 -0.735744 0.4665 EXIM -49439.98 45383.77 -1.089376 0.2830 EXIM^2 -0.175428 0.128496 -1.365249 0.1804 EXIM*LABOUR -0.049223 0.047215 -1.042532 0.3039 EXIM*POPN 0.982165 0.879151 1.117174 0.2711 LABOUR -18039.83 18496.29 -0.975322 0.3357 LABOUR^2 -0.018423 0.009986 -1.844849 0.0731 LABOUR*POPN 0.344698 0.336446 1.024526 0.3122 POPN 120773.0 157305.5 0.767761 0.4475 POPN^2 -1.217523 1.523271 -0.799282 0.4292 R-squared 0.222142 Mean dependent var 2322644. Adjusted R-squared 0.032933 S.D. dependent var 3306810. S.E. of regression 3251902. Akaike info criterion 33.01368 Sum squared resid 3.91E+14 Schwarz criterion 33.40733 Log likelihood -765.8215 F-statistic 1.174056 Durbin-Watson stat 1.306019 Prob(F-statistic) 0.339611 The 5% critical value for chi-squared with nine degrees of freedom is 16.919, whilst the computed value of White’s statistic is 10.44. We may therefore conclude that, on the basis of the White test, there is no evidence of heteroscedascicity. Autocorrelation The existence of autocorrelation exists in the model if there exists correlation between residuals. In the context of a time series, we are particularly interested to see if successive residual values are related to prior values. To determine autocorrelation, Gujarati’s rule of thumb of using between a third and a quarter of the length of the time series was used. In this particular case, a lag of 15 was selected. Date: 04/16/08 Time: 08:05 Sample: 1960 2006 Included observations: 47 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob . |**** | . |**** | 1 0.494 0.494 12.234 0.000 . |*** | . |** | 2 0.423 0.237 21.409 0.000 . |*. | .*| . | 3 0.155 -0.171 22.669 0.000 . | . | .*| . | 4 0.007 -0.145 22.672 0.000 .*| . | .*| . | 5 -0.109 -0.069 23.319 0.000 **| . | .*| . | 6 -0.244 -0.160 26.674 0.000 **| . | . | . | 7 -0.194 0.037 28.845 0.000 **| . | . | . | 8 -0.202 -0.004 31.247 0.000 **| . | .*| . | 9 -0.226 -0.162 34.344 0.000 **| . | .*| . | 10 -0.269 -0.186 38.859 0.000 .*| . | . |*. | 11 -0.134 0.122 40.013 0.000 .*| . | . | . | 12 -0.079 0.047 40.428 0.000 .*| . | .*| . | 13 -0.078 -0.151 40.837 0.000 . | . | . | . | 14 0.013 0.029 40.849 0.000 . | . | . | . | 15 0.041 0.018 40.970 0.000 The results of the Q statistic indicate that the data is nonstationary; in other words, the mean and standard deviation of the data do indeed vary over time. This is not a surprising result, given growth in the UK’s economy and population since 1960. A further test available to test for autocorrelation is the Breusch-Godfrey test. The results of this test on the model are detailed below. Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 15.53618 Probability 0.000010 Obs*R-squared 20.26299 Probability 0.000040 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 04/16/08 Time: 09:23 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 9294.879 18204.51 0.510581 0.6124 EXIM 0.047292 0.092176 0.513065 0.6107 LABOUR 0.039181 0.031072 1.260967 0.2144 POPN -0.182287 0.348222 -0.523479 0.6035 RESID(-1) 0.788084 0.154144 5.112655 0.0000 RESID(-2) -0.180226 0.160485 -1.123009 0.2680 R-squared 0.431127 Mean dependent var 0.000100 Adjusted R-squared 0.361753 S.D. dependent var 1540.499 S.E. of regression 1230.710 Akaike info criterion 17.18731 Sum squared resid 62100572 Schwarz criterion 17.42350 Log likelihood -397.9019 F-statistic 6.214475 Durbin-Watson stat 1.734584 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000225 We can observe from the results above that RESID(-1) has a high t value. In other words, we would reject the hypothesis of no first order autocorrelation. By contrast, second order autocorrelation does not appear to be present in the model. Overcoming serial correlation A method to overcome the problem of nonstationarity is to undertake a difference of the dependent variable (ie GDPyear1 – GDPyear0) An initial attempt to improve the equation by using this differencing method produced a very poor result, as can be seen below. Dependent Variable: GDPDIFF Method: Least Squares Date: 04/16/08 Time: 08:17 Sample: 1961 2006 Included observations: 46 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 14037.58 12694.29 1.105818 0.2753 EXIM 0.084287 0.052601 1.602398 0.1167 ENERGY 0.011470 0.011710 0.979487 0.3331 LABOUR -0.004251 0.014304 -0.297230 0.7678 POPN -0.300942 0.265082 -1.135279 0.2629 R-squared 0.207408 Mean dependent var 816.6959 Adjusted R-squared 0.130082 S.D. dependent var 657.1886 S.E. of regression 612.9557 Akaike info criterion 15.77678 Sum squared resid 15404304 Schwarz criterion 15.97555 Log likelihood -357.8660 F-statistic 2.682255 Durbin-Watson stat 1.401626 Prob(F-statistic) 0.044754 Forecasting The forecasts for the dependent variables are based on Kirby (2008) and are presented below. The calculation of EXIM for future years was based upon growth rates for exports (47% of the 2006 total) and imports (53%) separately. The two streams were added together to produce the 1950 level GDP figure, from which year-on-year increases in GDP could be calculated. The results of the forecast are shown below. The 2008 figure was felt to be particularly unrealistic, so a sensitivity test was applied to EXIM (population growth is relatively certain in the short term and calculating a forecast of labour days lost is a particularly difficult challenge). Instead of EXIM growing by an average of 1.7% per annum during the forecast period, its growth was constrained to 0.7%. As we can see from the â€Å"GDP2† column, GDP forecast growth is significantly lower in 2008 and 2009 as a result. Critical evaluation of the econometric approach to model building and forecasting GDP is dependent on many factors, many of which were excluded from this analysis due to the unavailability of data covering forty years. Although the main regression results appear highly significant, there are many activities which should be trialled to try to improve the approach: a shorter time series with more available variables: using a short time series would enable a more intuitive set of variables to be trialled. For example, labour days lost is effectively a surrogate for productivity and cost per labour hour, but this is unavailable over 40 years; transformation of variables: a logarithmic or other transformation should be trialled to ascertain if some of the problems observed, such as autocorrelation, could be mitigated to any extent. The other, more relevant transformation is to undertake differencing of the data to remove autocorrelation; the one attempt made in this paper was particularly unsuccessful! Approximate word count, excluding all tables, charts and appendices: 1,400 Appendix 1 – Scatter diagrammes of GDP against dependent variables Appendix 2 obs Actual Fitted Residual Residual Plot 1960 17460.5 15933.8 1526.78 | . | * | 1961 17816.1 16494.5 1321.57 | . | *. | 1962 17883.8 16714.1 1169.67 | . | * . | 1963 18556.7 18153.6 403.108 | . |* . | 1964 19618.0 19117.8 500.191 | . | * . | 1965 20209.7 19558.9 650.773 | . | * . | 1966 20699.1 20272.1 426.905 | . |* . | 1967 21303.1 20973.3 329.754 | . |* . | 1968 22037.1 22395.3 -358.204 | . *| . | 1969 22518.6 22824.6 -305.982 | . *| . | 1970 23272.7 23147.8 124.912 | . * . | 1971 23729.9 23395.8 334.070 | . |* . | 1972 24806.3 22418.6 2387.67 | . | . * | 1973 26134.9 27249.5 -1114.60 | . * | . | 1974 25506.2 28880.9 -3374.64 | * . | . | 1975 25944.6 28401.8 -2457.14 | * . | . | 1976 26343.7 30306.2 -3962.47 |* . | . | 1977 26468.8 29829.1 -3360.31 | * . | . | 1978 28174.4 29922.0 -1747.61 | * | . | 1979 29232.7 27846.9 1385.71 | . | *. | 1980 28957.2 29271.0 -313.855 | . *| . | 1981 28384.0 29590.8 -1206.86 | .* | . | 1982 28626.2 29526.2 -899.933 | . * | . | 1983 29915.3 30883.9 -968.627 | . * | . | 1984 30531.7 29677.7 853.960 | . | * . | 1985 31494.3 33289.4 -1795.09 | * | . | 1986 32748.5 33293.0 -544.520 | . * | . | 1987 34609.2 34223.2 385.976 | . |* . | 1988 36842.2 34669.4 2172.76 | . | . * | 1989 37539.8 35938.6 1601.20 | . | * | 1990 37187.7 35988.5 1199.22 | . | *. | 1991 36922.2 35080.4 1841.84 | . | .* | 1992 37116.4 35793.7 1322.74 | . | *. | 1993 38357.7 38051.2 306.418 | . |* . | 1994 39696.7 39790.8

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

The Impact Of Product Location :: Business and Management Studies:

The Impact Of Product Location Before we start I think it is important that I clarify what we mean by Marketing as a concept. Basically it is about selling products that customers want to buy, this is achieved by putting the customer first. Continuing customer research identifies needs and trends in customers buying behaviour which we can cater for to attract further customers. By satisfying the needs of our customers they will become regular customers and will potentially recommend us to their friends and families. The way that we meet our customers needs is by getting the right balance of the â€Å"marketing mix† by selling the right product at the right price in the right place whilst being presented correctly. As we advance into the twenty first century there is a stronger focus on marketing than selling within our supermarkets. The supermarket retail sector in this country has reached maturity and as a result we cannot simply open new supermarkets to compete with our rivals. Instead to compete we must build a loyalty base of existing customers whilst attempting to attract customers from our competitors. There has been a noticeable shift from mass marketing to segment marketing. Our customers are individuals with individual needs. You cannot simply sell the same product to everyone because people are different they require different products or at least different versions of the same product. To this end the physical identity of our supermarkets is evolving as the products within them evolve. This has led to diversity in our display methods allowing us to prioritise and promote certain products over other products. Simple things like having two columns of aisles rather than one has doubled the end of aisle space within the store. By their very nature of being at the end of the aisle they attract a greater amount of attention from the customer. By observing customers in our supermarkets it is clear that customer behave in certain ways and respond to certain stimuli. It is perhaps common sense that after walking the length of an aisle that you will check out the end of the aisle as you walk around to head back down the next aisle. It is also common sense that products displayed at eye level attract more attention and are more easily found by our customers. This does not just apply to adults, by placing products that appeal to children at a level that they can see them it is clear that they are more likely to ask their parents to buy these goods. It has also been identified that many customers when searching for products look ahead but also